Learn how to make better business decisions by acting on evidence, adjusting your approach and applying lessons from experience.

Early in my career, I remember sitting in a doctoral seminar, looking around the room and thinking, “I don’t belong here.” Everyone else seemed sharper, more prepared and more confident. Meanwhile, I was mentally editing every thought before I let it leave my mouth.

Eventually, I realized I had developed a pretty effective system for never embarrassing myself: Don’t say anything until I’m certain I’m right. Unfortunately, it was also an effective system for never growing. So I gave myself a different rule: If I’m not embarrassing myself at least once a day, I’m probably not pushing myself hard enough.

Decades later, after moving into entrepreneurship and venture investing, I’ve turned that lesson into a more disciplined approach. I call it Act, Adjust, Absorb.

“Move before you’re ready” is terrible advice if it means ignoring evidence. Leaders need to distinguish between certainty, which is rare, and a sufficient signal, which they can actively look for.

When I began exploring what would eventually become Desert Forge Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on the Las Vegas ecosystem, I didn’t have every detail figured out. I felt limited in my ability to act, so I did what I’ve learned to do with consequential decisions: I talked to people who understood the opportunity, challenged my assumptions, and looked for evidence that the idea could work. I started by talking with my nephew, who is deeply involved in the Silicon Valley ecosystem.

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