In his first Jackson Hole address, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh doubled down on a promise to cut “forward guidance” and a commitment to 2% inflation.
In his first month as Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh indicated the central bank would talk less – particularly about what it predicts for future economic conditions – and concentrate more on bringing inflation down.
At the 100-day mark of Warsh’s tenure – coinciding with the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole summit in Wyoming – those throughlines remain true.
“You can call it an outline. You can call it a trail map. Just don't call it forward guidance,” Warsh said Friday of his own remarks.
Warsh has made it a point to mute “forward guidance” from the start of his term. In June, at his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as chair, Warsh oversaw the removal of wording in a previous policy statement that may have suggested the Fed anticipated trimming borrowing costs in the future.
“Transparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself,” he said. “Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility: getting monetary policy right.”
A “quieter Fed,” Warsh said, “is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit: the only true test of our credibility.”
Warsh said the Fed began pushing forward guidance during the 2007-08 financial crisis but that the practice had “overstayed its welcome.”
“Market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next.
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