Shoppers blame the retailer, not the carrier, when a holiday package goes missing, UPS Capital’s Ashley Hillman said, and 60% of consumers in a UPS Capital survey say a bad shipping experience would keep them from shopping there again.

UPS Capital built CommerceShield, an AI model trained on 26 billion delivery touchpoints across 150 million U.S. addresses, to predict and flag delivery risk before a package ever ships.

Only 10% of shoppers see checkout shipping protection as a hidden fee. More than half say it signals accountability, and a similar share say it makes them more likely to buy.

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One of the most stressful situations for holiday shoppers is opening the door to find nothing there after a tracking page says the package was delivered. Ashley Hillman knows the feeling firsthand. A pair of pajamas she ordered for her kids’ Santa photos never showed up. The package was lost somewhere inside a carrier facility, and she found out only when she reached out to the brand.

“That’s the most stressful experience a consumer can have,” said Hillman, vice president of product at UPS Capital. “You say it was delivered, the carrier said it was delivered, but it’s not here. What happens?”

More than a third of consumers cite a package marked delivered that they can’t find as their most stressful holiday shipping experience, according to UPS Capital survey data.

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