The global energy map is no longer drawn by cost but by allegiance, and according to new analysis from Prometeia, 2026 has shown how fast those alignments can reverse.

Energy markets have always been defined by imbalance, with some nations producing far more than they use and others relying heavily on imports. Prometeia notes that until 2022, those gaps were closed by simple economics: buyers sourced from the cheapest, closest supplier. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended that model. Security and politics now come first, and efficiency trails well behind.

Before the war, Russian pipelines delivered roughly 40% of Europe’s gas imports. Europe has since rebuilt its supply base almost entirely, leaning on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Qatar and Norway, while cutting demand, mandating storage levels and expanding renewables. Russia, meanwhile, pushed discounted oil towards India and China, using a “shadow fleet” to bypass the embargo and the G7 price cap. Gas has proved harder to reroute, with new Asian pipelines unable to replace lost European volumes.

Prometeia argues that trade direction is now a political variable rather than a geographic one. Following Maduro’s arrest, Venezuela has come under US control, and its crude is heading to US Gulf Coast refineries instead of China. Canada is moving the opposite way. Facing tariffs and annexation threats, it has accelerated exports through its Pacific pipeline, where China is now the top buyer. The irony, Prometeia observes, is that Washington “captures” Venezuela while nudging a close ally towards Beijing.

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