Income from card, digital and other rails has swelled to about 40% of revenue for the global bank industry, according to consulting firm McKinsey.

The rate of revenue growth for the payments industry will generally slow in coming years, McKinsey predicted. The results from McKinsey’s forecast echo a similar outlook from a rival, Boston Consulting Group, put forward earlier this month.

By 2030, McKinsey expects global payments industry revenue to climb to $3.2 trillion, with North American contributing about $900 billion to the 4% annual growth rate over intervening years.

BCG similarly projected transaction revenue will climb to $1.03 trillion by 2030, from $770 billion last year, with the rate of growth expected to decline to 6% between 2025 and 2030, down from 8% between 2019 and 2025.

How much the payments industry revenue growth rate slows will vary by region of the world as countries diverge in the types of payments systems they’re adopting and different types of payment methods thrive, or decline, in different parts of the world.

While card networks continue to dominate in the U.S. and Canada, as well as Western Europe, India and Brazil have shifted their populations to account-to-account systems and much of Africa has adopted phone-based systems, the report noted. China has gravitated to a mix of cards and A2A transactions. Meanwhile, stablecoins are gathering momentum in some places (Africa and China), more than others (the U.S. and the U.K.)

The revenue growth rate is expected to sink the most in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, decreasing from a 14% annual average clip during the past five years, to a 3% rate from last year through 2030, according to McKinsey.

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