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LSEG Data & Analytics: Mega-deal freeze puts record M&A year on the line

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LSEG Data & Analytics: Mega-deal freeze puts record M&A year on the line

The year’s dealmaking boom has hit its first serious test. According to analysis from LSEG Data & Analytics, global M&A has reached $3.9tn so far this year. That is up 28% and the strongest start since 2021. Even excluding strategic stake purchases, which reflect historic investment in technology, the total stands at $2.9tn, up 20% and still a five-year high.

Q3, however, broke the momentum. Activity fell to $993.4bn, down 41% on Q2 and the first quarter below $1tn since Q2 2025. LSEG Data & Analytics discussed the trends in the latest episode of LSEG’s Behind the Deals video series, alongside LSEG head of news Elizabeth Kuhr and Reuters European M&A editor Anousha Sakoui.

The slowdown was concentrated at the top end of the market. Q2 produced 26 deals worth more than $10bn, while Q3 managed just ten, the fewest since Q4 2024. Transactions of that scale need clear financing and confident boards. Both are harder to secure when the direction of interest rates is unclear and geopolitical risk is rising. Seasonality and a strong first half explain part of the drop, as Sakoui noted, but LSEG Data & Analytics argues they cannot account for a 62% fall in mega-deal count.

Fee data tell the same story. Q3 investment banking fees totalled $35.2bn, down 19% from a Q2 that was the strongest quarter since LSEG’s records began in 2000. Year-to-date fees remain robust at $117bn, up 12% and less than 1% below the 2021 record.

The pause was broad.



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