Large private banks may see NIMs dragged down by FCNR deposits in Q2
NIMs are likely to remain stable or decline marginally quarter on quarter, depending on the quantum of FCNR deposits raised, while lending yields remain stable during the quarter.
Banks are expected to report about 11 per cent year-on-year earnings growth, with NII growth also at 11 per cent. Private banks are expected to post 20 per cent year-on-year earnings growth, while PSU banks are expected to report flat earnings. Non-interest income is expected to decline due to lower treasury income, while lower slippages and higher recoveries should keep credit costs down. Kotak continues to prefer large private banks over mid-tier, regional and small finance banks, citing stronger balance sheets and underwriting discipline.
FCNR deposit mobilisation is likely to be the key factor shaping banks’ second quarter results, with the inflows expected to create a 10-15 basis point quarterly impact on net interest margins ( NIMs ) for large private banks . Banks are expected to report solid loan growth in the quarter, aided by the additional deposits, while asset quality remains stable, to Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report. It expects NII to grow 11 per cent year on year, with overall earnings growth of about 11 per cent. The impact of FCNR deposits will be felt as funding raised at attractive offshore spreads takes time to be deployed through loan growth or used to replace higher-cost liabilities, Kotak Institutional Equities said. For large private banks, the inflows could also dilute reported CASA ratios and create a short-term drag on NIMs.
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