Insurers’ Q2 outlook: LIC leads VNB growth, HDFC Life recovery may moderate
The impact of proposed changes to insurance distribution payouts and expense of management (EoM) norms is expected to dominate insurers’ Q2FY27 earnings calls and stock performance, with less emphasis on quarterly financial results. Protection business growth is supporting life insurers’ margins and value of new business (VNB), while motor third party (TP) claims provisioning will be a key driver for general insurers.
LIC’s VNB is forecast to rise 40 per cent, with margins expanding to 22.5 per cent. Proposed distribution payout and EoM changes are expected to dominate earnings discussions. Insurers could face weaker growth in FY2028 as they adjust to new regulations. Motor TP claims will be a key monitorable, with ICICI Lombard best placed to adapt to proposed commission changes.
Private life insurers under coverage are expected to report 10-15 per cent year-on-year growth in annualised premium equivalent (APE) and 6-18 per cent growth in VNB, with margins ranging from a 200 basis point contraction to a 150 basis point expansion. Strong protection business growth and the resolution of concerns over margin losses following the GST exemption are expected to support performance. Health claims typically rise in the second quarter, although structural improvements and higher operating leverage continue to support core earnings. PB is expected to maintain steady growth, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. Advt
Life insurers: Mixed growth outlook HDFC Life: APE fell 2 per cent year-on-year in July 2026 against a high base before recovering to 17 per cent growth in August.
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