New research shows that the cost of many consumer goods would have declined last year if not for U.S. tariffs.

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The paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says the cost of 67 categories of goods was 2.9 percentage points higher as of February because of the tariffs. The paper was released earlier this week by the central bank and flagged in a Thursday (Oct. 8) CNBC report.

The researchers also found that prices for the products in question would have dipped by nearly 1% without the tariffs.

“Importantly, tariffs also raise the prices of goods that are not directly taxed: goods made in the U.S. account for about a third of the total effect,” the researchers wrote. “This indirect effect takes longer to materialize than the direct effect on imported goods, so the full effect of a tariff takes about a year to appear.”

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While annual price growth in the 67 categories hit its peak at the beginning of this year, the researchers expect that consumers will continue to pay higher prices in 2027 due to tariffs.

The Supreme Court ruled in February that many of the White House tariffs were illegal , leading the government to refund billions of dollars to retailers. f. Beauty and Burlington announced they would use the tariff refunds to lower prices .

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