The cards that drove much of the rise in serious post-pandemic delinquency are making a smaller contribution to the overall national rate. As a result, the latest household debt figures from the Federal Reserve show fewer card balances moving into delinquency as a share of the total eligible to do so. A separate New York Fed analysis shows how much the national picture depends on when those cards were opened.

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The New York Fed’s Nov. 10 household debt report shows that card balances rose $22 billion to about $1.29 trillion in the third quarter. As PYMNTS reported, the shares of card balances moving into early and serious delinquency both edged down from the prior quarter. The national figures combine balances from cards opened under different lending standards and at different points in the economic cycle.

The Fed’s companion analysis of card delinquencies separated those balances by the year the cards were issued. The median credit score at opening fell from 699 for cards issued in 2017 through 2019 to 688 for those issued in 2020 through 2022. The latter group later accounted for a sizable share of balances newly becoming at least 90 days past due. Its contribution has since diminished as those cards make up a shrinking share of surviving accounts. Researchers also found that newly opened card debt has historically been more likely to fall past due, making the credit quality of recent applicants especially relevant to what happens next.

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