Political contracts generated $901 million in September across four prediction-market platforms, a small share of a record trading month even as the US midterm elections approached.

Sports, crypto, and multi-event contracts drove much more activity, offering trading opportunities beyond election cycles. Those three categories accounted for 94% of September’s $75.5 billion in nominal volume, according to Prediction Frontier’s third-quarter report.

The research covers Kalshi, Polymarket’s international and US venues, and Novig. The monthly record coincided with the start of the NFL and college football seasons.

Sports provide a continuing calendar of matches, while short-duration crypto contracts let traders take positions on repeated price movements.

Kalshi, for example, offers contracts on whether cryptocurrency prices rise or fall over 15-minute windows. Prediction markets traders can redeploy proceeds after each position settles rather than wait for a distant election result.

Combos work differently. They combine several outcomes into one position, similar to a sportsbook parlay, and some trade for only a few cents. Kalshi offers them across sports and other event categories, so combos should not automatically be counted as sports trading.

Their low prices also affect reported scale. A contract with a maximum $1 payout contributes $1 to nominal volume even if the buyer pays only a few cents. Cheap combos can therefore produce substantial headline turnover from relatively small purchases.

2 billion in September nominal volume. Kalshi’s share rose from 69% in July to 73% in August and September, although Novig enters the dataset only from August 4.

Source link