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More than half of middle-market chief financial officers said they need high confidence before expanding investment, according to the PYMNTS Intelligence report “Funding the Future: What Gives CFOs the Confidence to Grow,” the October edition of The 2026 Certainty Project. However, 92% said a moderate or smaller decline in certainty could be enough to push their companies into a defensive position.

According to the report, 57% of CFOs adjusted capital spending within three months of a shift in confidence. That can result in an investment environment in which expansion can take conviction to authorize but relatively little deterioration in outlook to interrupt.

For banks, payments providers and FinTechs, the next opportunity in corporate finance may not be helping businesses move money faster. It may be helping them understand, with enough confidence, how much money they can afford to put to work.

Companies remain interested in growth, but their willingness to finance it depends on their ability to anticipate future conditions. The challenge is not necessarily persuading CFOs to take more risk. It is giving them better information about which risks they can afford to take.

The PYMNTS Intelligence report highlighted a potential asymmetry in the investment cycle. Companies can postpone expansion quickly, but reversing these decisions may require renewed evidence of demand, available liquidity and acceptable financial returns.

A delayed distribution center, postponed technology upgrade or deferred market expansion may preserve cash today while limiting the company’s capacity to capture demand tomorrow.

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