The latest USDA report included increases for both world production (+636,000 bales to 118.0 million) and mill use in 2026/27 (+162,000 bales to 123.1 million). Revisions to estimates for previous crop years lifted 2026/27 beginning stocks 392,000 bales to 75.7 million. The net effect was an 822,000 bale increase for 2026/27 ending stocks to 70.7 million.

The largest updates to 2026/27 production numbers included those for Brazil (+500,000 bales to 19.0 million), the U.S. (+241,000 bales to 13.4 million), and Argentina (-125,000 bales to 1.3 million).

For mill use, there was only one revision for 2026/27 that was 100,000 bales or more (Vietnam +100,000 bales to 8.3 million). There were a couple of notable changes for 2025/26 estimates (India +250,000 bales to 26.3 million and Uzbekistan -500,000 bales to 3.5 million).

The global trade forecast for 2026/27 was increased +482,000 bales to 44.7 million. The largest revisions to imports were for India (+300,000 bales to 3.3 million) and Vietnam (+100,000 bales to 8.3 million). The only revision to exports over 100,000 bales was for Brazil (+500,000 bales to 16.0 million).

With repeated moves over 90 cents/lb followed by retreats below 80 cents/lb, an unresolved question is whether the market can find a stable balance between prices and demand. The year-over-year tightening of global stocks in 2026/27 may be encouraging higher price ideas, but as values have climbed higher, there have been recurrent pullbacks from the buying side.

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