Picture two Saturday afternoons in Tokyo’s busiest shopping district, Shibuya, one year apart.

On the first, in August 2025, much of the chatter would have been in Mandarin, after Mainland China sent more than 1 million visitors to Japan that month. On the second, this August, the same streets would sound very different, with most shoppers hailing from South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. 

The shift reflects a striking change in the country’s visitor numbers. This year, arrivals from mainland China fell nearly 60 per cent to just 418,000 this August. Yet the country largely made up the shortfall elsewhere, with overall tourist numbers dropping by less than 10 per cent and still hovering over a healthy 3 million.

The collapse started last November when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could amount to a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Within days, Beijing urged its citizens not to travel to Japan as an attempt to punish Takaichi’s government economically.

Airlines quickly fell into line. Chinese carriers offered free refunds and changes on Japan tickets, and Beijing asked airlines to reduce flights to Japan through March 2026, Bloomberg reported at the time.

Aviation data from OAG, cited by the South China Morning Post, showed 2641 round-trip flights scheduled between China and Japan for August 2026, against 6127 a year earlier. Air China, China Eastern and China Southern have extended their free refund and change policies on Japan travel to 24 October.

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