EU leaders will meet this week for a decisive round of talks on the bloc’s next seven-year budget for 2028–2034. These negotiations will shape the EU’s priorities and investment framework well beyond the next EU elections, so the decisions leaders reach now are especially consequential for Europe’s direction over the next decade.

The October European Council is a key political moment. The budget negotiations have reached the crunch phase, with governments aiming to strike a political deal before the end of the year. Some of the most sensitive questions, including the overall size of the budget, are still open.

Five of Europe’s largest environmental organisations, BirdLife Europe, Climate Action Network Europe, European Environmental Bureau, Transport & Environment, and WWF EU, highlight five key issues for journalists to watch for.

The current negotiating text says at least 35% of the EU budget should support climate and environmental action. In practice, that means EU money going towards measures such as new renewable energy capacity, home renovations, industrial decarbonisation, public transport, climate resilience, and protecting and restoring nature.

But the 35% is not yet guaranteed. Quantity is only part of the picture: the methodology used to decide what counts towards the target matters just as much. Defence and security spending is excluded from the calculation, and further exemptions would weaken the commitment. Greenwashing and exemptions also mean that the effective target is well below the headline 35%. According to our analysis , around 8% of the MFF could be counted towards the target without making any real contribution to climate or environmental goals, which would leave an effective target of around 27%, almost a quarter below the headline figure.

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