TrendForce projects that global notebook shipments could decline by a high-single-digit percentage in 2027, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising component costs. Here are the details.

In a report released this week, TrendForce projects that global notebook shipments will decline in 2027, with the drop ranging from low- to high-single digits, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising costs.

TrendForce says the impact will depend on how much of the rising component costs manufacturers pass on to consumers through higher retail prices, rather than absorbing them at the expense of their profit margins.

TrendForce’s latest notebook industry research reveals that the primary risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. Global notebook shipments are currently projected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027.

However, if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated, brands may be forced to pass more of these costs on to consumers. These higher retail prices could further extend replacement cycles, potentially pushing the full-year shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.

TrendForce says that notebook shipments in 2026 were supported by factors such as improved CPU availability, early purchasing by manufacturers, and replacement demand brought forward from later periods.

With some purchases originally expected in the second half of 2026 and beyond already brought forward, replacement momentum in subsequent periods is likely to weaken. Furthermore, as lower-cost inventories are gradually depleted, brands will face more direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices.

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