Business News Tech AI Startups are betting on AI to predict the future

Numerous startups are innovating artificial intelligence solutions designed to amplify forecasting capabilities across multiple sectors. These AI tools aim to yield deeper insights into financial markets as well as fields like healthcare and public policy. The increasing dependence on AI by established prediction markets presents hurdles for traditional investors. By 2030, AI-driven forecasting models could dramatically transform decision-making processes through advanced questioning and probability assessment based on diverse outcomes.

Several startups are betting that they can leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to make better forecasts than even the most specialized experts when it comes to topics as varied as stock market movements, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or how a Shakira song will perform on music charts. By 2030, "we're going to feel that what we were doing for our decision-making was complete Stone Age thinking," Dan Schwarz, cofounder of the forecasting company FutureSearch, said. AI forecasting models are already on par with the best "superforecasters" -- gifted individuals whose estimates are markedly superior to those of ordinary people -- thanks to troves of data acquired from both public and private sources.

In early September, two AI models made history when they took the top spots in the Metaculus Cup, a competition among prediction champions, both human and nonhuman. FutureSearch's in-house human wizard, superforecaster Tom Liptay, is aware that "he's not secure in his job" in the medium term, Schwarz said. 9 million in just seven months on the American prediction-making site Kalshi.

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