Aurora 1.5 is a major update to the open Aurora Earth-system foundation model, adding 22 new weather variables for a broader view of atmospheric conditions, hourly forecasts, and probabilistic ensemble forecasting. Developed by Microsoft Weather as an extension of the original model from Microsoft Research AI for Science, Aurora 1.5 shows how frontier research can move into broader use: open for researchers and developers to evaluate and extend, and designed to support customers where additional data, infrastructure, and operational assurance is needed. As climate and weather-related risks continue to affect communities, infrastructure, and economies worldwide, advances in Earth-system forecasting can help improve preparedness and decision-making.

Aurora is a foundation model for the Earth system developed by Microsoft Research AI for Science, first introduced in 2024 and published in Nature (opens in new tab) in 2025. It showed that a single model could be adapted to medium-range weather, ocean waves, atmospheric chemistry, and emerging climate applications, including high-resolution weather forecasting through fine-tuning. Its growing use has reinforced the value of an open, collaborative model that is easier to adapt, evaluate, and put to use. 

This next phase of Aurora (opens in new tab) builds on that foundation by making the model openly available for the global community to adapt, extend, and build on. 

5 advances the broader effort to make open weather foundation models practical and scalable for organizations that rely on atmospheric and Earth-system intelligence. 5 adds one of the most requested capabilities from users: ensemble forecasting. Because forecasts are sensitive to initial conditions and model uncertainty, ensembles run multiple simulations to show the range and likelihood of possible outcomes.

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