Tesla laid out an updated timeline for Full Self-Driving, its Cybercab, and the Optimus robot in a recent meeting with JPMorgan at its Fremont factory. The bank walked away with claims that FSD v15 is a “step-change,” that today’s HW4 computer can handle unsupervised driving, and that Optimus could go on sale to outside buyers as soon as the second half of 2027.

Tesla told JPMorgan that FSD v15 is a major jump in capability, built on seven “core technologies,” with about 40% of them already running in the robotaxi fleet in Austin. Early feedback is “encouraging,” per the note.

Tesla shipped FSD v14 in October 2025, its first big update in roughly a year, and Elon Musk called v14.3 the “last piece of the puzzle” back in April. So v15 is at least the third version in a row pitched as the one that finally gets there.

And “there” is the same place Tesla has been selling since 2016: unsupervised Full Self-Driving on a car you own. Every version has been a “step-change.” Customers are still supervising.

Tesla told the bank that its current HW4 computer, which it calls AI4, is enough to run v15 and unsupervised FSD. At the same time, Tesla is rolling out AI4.5, a new version of the chip with roughly 10% more compute and about twice the memory.

Tesla made that exact promise about the previous computer, HW3, for years before quietly walking it back. HW3 cars are now getting a stripped-down FSD v14 “Lite” instead of the real thing, and we recently reported on rising HW3 computer failures tied to that software.

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